
The best buys often sit in neighborhoods most people drive past. The New York Times recently profiled Atlantic City, where buyers who looked past the casino-town reputation saw their homes double in value. Colorado has its own version of that story, and a few chapters are still being written.
Twenty-five years ago, the neighborhoods north and south of East Colfax around Peoria were among the most overlooked in the metro. The anchor of the area, Fitzsimons Army Medical Center, closed in 1999 after more than 80 years.
Then the investment started stacking up:
Tens of thousands of doctors, nurses, researchers and staff now work on one square mile, and many want to live close by. Neighborhood groups even ran a "Live Where You Work" campaign to draw campus employees into nearby Hoffman Heights.
What it meant for home values: Homes in the 80010 ZIP code were trading for roughly $105,000 to $165,000 in 2010. The median was $295,000 by January 2020 and $469,000 by April 2022. Recent medians sit in the $400,000s. Citywide, Aurora home values rose 71% from 2010 to 2017 alone.
Not every piece hit right away. The science and technology park on the north end of the campus was slow to fill. Big projects take years, and patient buyers did best.
When Stapleton International Airport closed in 1995, it left 4,700 acres of runways in northeast Denver. Plenty of people doubted anyone would want to live next to an old airfield.
It became one of the largest urban redevelopments in the country. Today the neighborhood, renamed Central Park in 2020, has dozens of parks and schools and an A Line rail station with direct trains to Union Station and DIA.
By 2021, homes there were selling for $255 per square foot, compared with $214 across the metro. Building is now nearly finished, so most of what comes up for sale is resale.
If North Aurora was the story of the 2000s, Globeville and Elyria-Swansea in north Denver may be the story of the next decade. For generations these neighborhoods were split by I-25 and I-70 and surrounded by industry.
Here's what has changed:
Home values are still well below the Denver average. Zillow puts typical values around $365,000 in Globeville and $355,000 in Elyria-Swansea.
To be fair, this one isn't a sure thing. Some later phases of the National Western plan are still unfunded, values have dipped over the past year along with the rest of Denver, and longtime residents worry about being priced out. That's what "overlooked" looks like. The upside and the risk are both real.
The pattern repeats. Before prices move, the signs usually show up in roughly this order:
By step 5, much of the easy gain is often gone. Buyers who bought at steps 1 to 3 did the best in North Aurora.
One caution: nobody can promise appreciation. Buy a home you would be happy living in even if the neighborhood takes longer to change than you hoped.
Homes in up-and-coming areas are often older and need work. The right loan can make that an advantage:
Thinking about an overlooked neighborhood? As a brokerage, we compare 100+ lenders to find the loan that fits the house and the plan. Text or call us at (303) 931-6776, or apply online.
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Sources: CU Anschutz Medical Campus, Children's Hospital Colorado, City of Aurora Housing Study, Westword, Sentinel Colorado, ColoradoBiz, Urban Land Institute, The Denver Post, Colorado State University, Denverite and Zillow. Past performance of a neighborhood does not guarantee future home values. Loan programs are subject to eligibility and approval.